Sen. Jon Ossoff and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are emerging as strong Democratic contenders in hypothetical presidential matchups, with both showing advantages over Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in early polling. A new Emerson College poll found Buttigieg leading both Republicans by five points, while Ossoff led Vance by five and Rubio by three points. The findings come more than a year before the first 2028 votes, as Democrats begin positioning themselves for a potentially crowded presidential primary.
Jon Ossoff and Pete Buttigieg lead early matchups
Buttigieg led both Vance and Rubio 49% to 44%. Ossoff led Vance 49% to 44% and Rubio 47% to 44%. Among other prominent Democrats, California Gov. Gavin Newsom led Vance 49% to 44% and Rubio 48% to 46%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris led Vance 49% to 45%. Rubio, however, led Harris 48% to 43%.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez performed less strongly, trailing Vance 44% to 46% and Rubio 43% to 48%.
Democrats gain in prediction markets
Prediction markets also currently favor Democrats. As of Thursday, August 20, Kalshi gave Democrats a 58% chance of winning the White House, up from 54% at the beginning of 2026 and 50% in January 2025. Polymarket put their chances at 59%, compared with 53% at the start of 2026 and 54% a year earlier.
Nevertheless, the Democratic primary field is still fluid. Candidates typically begin formally entering the race after the midterms, although potential contenders are already visiting early primary states and testing messages to build name recognition.
Jon Ossoff rejects presidential campaign speculation while Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom remain potential contenders
Despite commanding a notable lead over the current GOP frontrunners in early polls, Ossoff has said that he is not interested in a presidential run. In a statement to MS NOW, he said, “I have zero interest in running for president in 2028, and frankly zero interest in the 2028 fantasy football right now.”
Harris has hinted that she might gear up for another try at the White House in 2028. “I might. I am thinking about it,” she told Rev. Al Sharpton in April, adding that she “served for four years being a heartbeat away from the presidency of the United States.”
“I spent countless hours in my West Wing office footsteps away from the Oval Office. … I spent countless hours in the Oval Office and the Situation Room. I know what the job is, and I know what it requires,” she said.
Newsom has also not denied the possibility of throwing his hat in the ring, although he has stressed that it is not something he is actively considering right now. “I really believe it’s fate,” he told reporters in July. “You meet the moment, you represent something where you can uniquely and distinctively make the case that your voice matters in a competitive field where there will be stadiums full of Democrats. Every conceivable stripe of Democrat will be on display.”
Polls show crowded Democratic field
Other surveys demonstrate how unsettled the Democratic contest remains. An August 17-18 Saint Anselm College poll of 733 Democratic New Hampshire voters put Buttigieg at 25%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 17%, Ossoff and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly at 12% each, Newsom at 7% and Harris at 3%.
A recent Emerson poll had Buttigieg at 19%, Newsom at 17%, Ossoff and Ocasio-Cortez at 13% each, and Harris at 8%. An Echelon Insights poll instead placed Harris first at 18%, followed by Buttigieg at 13%, Newsom at 12%, Ocasio-Cortez at 11% and Ossoff at 5%. The poll results suggest the Democratic primary field is expected to be competitive and crowded, and with voters preferring different candidates in different polls, it seems any of the prominent Democrats have a fair shot on the presidential ballot.
