Prediction markets seem to favor Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as they tally the odds of him exiting the Trump administration amid mounting scrutiny. The Pentagon chief is currently catching flak over two scandals: the prolonged crisis aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln and concerns about depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles in the Iran war. However, prediction markets still see his departure from the Trump administration as unlikely. Kalshi and Polymarket currently assign relatively low probabilities to Hegseth leaving office soon, despite poor approval ratings and intensifying questions about his handling of the Pentagon.
Prediction markets see Pete Hegseth staying
As of early Thursday, August 13, Kalshi gave Hegseth a meager 4.8% chance of leaving the Trump administration before September 1 — up by nearly one percentage point in recent trading. Earlier Kalshi contracts asking whether he would be gone by July 1 or August 1 both resolved as “no,” while the September contract had attracted nearly $1 million in trading volume.
Polymarket was more skeptical over a longer period, putting the chance of Hegseth leaving by December 31 at 24%, based on about $324,000 in trading volume. Its August 31 contract stood at 3%, while a separate market placed the probability of Hegseth being impeached by year’s end at 4%.
Polls offer a contrasting view
According to reports, Hegseth’s prediction market figures contrast sharply with his public standing in polls. CNN data reporter Harry Enten recently calculated his net approval at -22, the lowest among the senior Trump administration officials surveyed. Enten described Hegseth as “the lowest of the low,” saying the -22 rating had appeared “in every single poll” he could find covering Hegseth’s tenure. A Marquette Law School poll conducted July 22-29 similarly gave Hegseth a -22 net favorability rating, with 23% favorable and 45% unfavorable.
This goes to show that while Hegseth’s approval ratings might be deeply underwater, prediction market traders still see his position inside the Trump administration as relatively secure for the time being.
The USS Abraham Lincoln crisis adds to Pete Hegseth scrutiny
The prediction markets’ reluctance to predict an imminent exit comes as Hegseth faces a growing controversy over the conditions on board the USS Abraham Lincoln. The carrier left San Diego on November 21, 2025, and was later redirected to the Middle East for the U.S.-Israeli military offensive against Iran. According to reports, the ship has spent more than 250 days at sea, with more than 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard and very limited opportunities to go ashore.
Multiple military news outlets have reported severe exhaustion, declining morale among on-board service members and multiple incidents involving sailors attempting or preparing to go overboard. On August 3, one sailor went overboard and was rescued within an hour. Officials said the sailor wore a life vest, was not injured and was later transferred for follow-up care. The incident was described by the Navy as a mental health episode.
Around 200 family members of the crew raised concerns about the conditions aboard the vessel during town hall meetings with Navy leadership in San Diego. One spouse reportedly told officials that her husband had messaged her that “he hopes he doesn’t wake up tomorrow.”
Pete Hegseth rejects reports as lawmakers demand answers
Hegseth has repeatedly rejected descriptions of deteriorating conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln. In April, he dismissed earlier reports as “fake news,” while on Thursday, he said conditions aboard the aircraft carrier had been “completely misrepresented.”
“We make sure every ship, every crew, every captain has everything we can provide them at every single moment. … Some deployments are longer than others, and I have more respect and gratitude for those sailors than anybody. What they do in those high seas in those austere conditions with less port calls is incredible,” he said in a statement.
The Navy has also disputed claims of a broader mental health crisis, saying, “We have not observed an increase in suicidal ideations or attempts aboard the ship,” and adding that religious, medical and mental-health professionals remain available to sailors.
However, lawmakers continue to press for answers. Sen. Richard Blumenthal cited “shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing issues, deteriorating mental health, deck safety concerns” and disruptions to mail and care packages. Rep. Mike Levin said families had described “moldy showers, broken toilets, no hot water for weeks, meals that came down to half a cup of rice and two tortillas.” He also pointed to Hegseth’s “fake news” comment, saying, “When families spoke up in April, Secretary Hegseth brushed it off as ‘fake news,’ but these service members aren’t lying to the people who love them. They answered the highest call there is, and this is how they are being treated?” Rep. Seth Moulton called the reports “horrific” and said an investigation would follow.
The USS George Washington is now heading toward the Middle East to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, although officials have said the rotation was planned before the controversy.
Apparent munitions shortage another headache for Pete Hegseth
Hegseth is also under pressure over reports of rapidly dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles following months of combat with Iran. Independent analysis has found that inventories of advanced interceptors, including Patriot and THAAD systems, have shrunk substantially, and rebuilding some depleted stocks could take years.
However, Hegseth has rejected claims of an immediate shortage, calling the issue a “manufactured story” and saying the Trump administration is accelerating weapons production. In June, he said, “Our stockpiles are strong and they will only get stronger in the future.”
Despite the controversies, President Donald Trump has continued to back his defense secretary. Reports that Trump confronted Hegseth over the stockpile issue were denied by the White House, with former Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt calling the account “100 percent fake news” and saying that Trump has “the utmost confidence in Secretary Hegseth.”
