Swing voters view the Republican Party more favorably than the Democratic Party heading into the 2026 midterm elections, yet they still favor Democratic congressional candidates by a double-digit margin, according to a new Data for Progress poll.
The findings capture a central paradox of the midterm landscape. While swing voters remain skeptical of both parties, dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress appears to be driving them toward Democratic candidates despite their unfavorable view of the Democratic Party.
Democrats have grown increasingly optimistic about retaking the House as Trump’s approval rating has slipped amid concerns over inflation, the cost of living and the fallout from the U.S.–Iran conflict. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections, giving Democrats an additional structural advantage.
Even so, the survey suggests voters may be willing to elect Democrats without embracing the party itself.
What to know
Data for Progress surveyed 447 self-identified swing voters as part of a broader sample of 5,809 respondents. Swing voters gave Democrats a net favorability rating of -29, compared with -25 for Republicans.
Despite that, swing voters favored a generic Democratic congressional candidate over a Republican by 12 percentage points, although 46 percent remained undecided.
Trump’s standing was even weaker, with a net approval rating of -42 among swing voters. Vice President J.D. Vance posted a net favorability rating of -26.
Polling averages and prediction markets continue to favor Democrats to win the House, while Republicans remain favored to retain the Senate.
Inside the swing-voter numbers
Only 29 percent of swing voters viewed the Democratic Party favorably, compared with 32 percent for Republicans. On the generic congressional ballot, 33 percent backed Democrats and 21 percent backed Republicans, while nearly half remained undecided.
Data for Progress defines swing voters using a composite measure that includes people who switched party preferences since 2024, rate both parties similarly, or remain undecided among multiple voting options. Using that methodology across five surveys conducted between May 15 and June 21 produced a sample of 447 likely voters, about 8 percent of the overall electorate.
Swing voters also expressed less enthusiasm about the election than voters overall. While 37 percent of likely voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting, only 16 percent of swing voters said the same. Like the broader electorate, they identified the economy, jobs and the cost of living as their top concern, with 38 percent naming it their highest priority.
Ryan O’Donnell, executive director of Data for Progress, said the findings suggest swing voters are not looking for Democrats to move toward the political center.
“The swing voters who will decide the midterms are not asking Democrats to sound more like Republicans — they want Democrats to embrace progressive economic policies that will actually work to lower costs and put workers first,” he said.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that Trump himself is the biggest reason many swing voters who dislike Democrats still intend to support Democratic candidates.
He pointed to growing frustration with Trump’s rhetoric, the administration’s response to Iran and voters’ broader economic concerns. Reeher also said some Republican-leaning swing voters may ultimately remain undecided or stay home.
Why Democrats remain unpopular
Reeher said Democrats continue struggling to present a unified alternative to Trump and Trumpism. He argued the party’s public image is often shaped by its most progressive voices, which can alienate persuadable voters.
He also cited lingering resentment over Democrats’ handling of former President Joe Biden‘s 2024 campaign and controversies surrounding individual candidates.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker has acknowledged those problems publicly. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press in March, Booker said Democrats have “failed this moment” and called for “a generational renewal.”
Some Democratic voters have also criticized party leaders for what they viewed as an insufficient response to Trump’s agenda, particularly on immigration.
Maine Senate race upended by Platner campaign collapse
One example Reeher cited was Democrat Graham Platner’s now-suspended Senate campaign in Maine.
Platner suspended his campaign on July 8 after former girlfriend Jenny Racicot accused him of sexual assault. Platner denied the allegation but said he could not continue after losing institutional support.
Following Politico‘s reporting, top Democrats — including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Ed Markey, Sen. Ruben Gallego and Rep. Ro Khanna — withdrew their endorsements. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders also urged Platner to step aside.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced it would not invest in the race if Platner remained the nominee, while Senate Majority PAC redirected resources elsewhere.
Platner had already faced criticism over old Reddit posts about lewd assault victims and a tattoo featuring Nazi imagery that he later covered.
Under Maine law, Democrats have until July 27 to select a replacement nominee if Platner formally withdraws. Potential replacements include Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, former Maine CDC Director Nirav Shah and former state Senate President Troy Jackson.
What other polls show
Other recent polling paints a similar picture.
A YouGov/The Economist survey found independents favored Democratic candidates 29 percent to 16 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
Quantus Insights found Democrats leading independents 42 percent to 34 percent while also reporting that more independents viewed Republicans as the more extreme party.
Cygnal reached a different conclusion, finding Republicans led Democrats among swing voters 38 percent to 35 percent.
Meanwhile, Noble Predictive Insights found Democrats’ generic-ballot lead had widened by five points since March.
Founder Mike Noble told The Center Square, “Democrats are widening their lead on the congressional generic ballot because they’re not the party in power – I’m not saying the Democrats are doing spectacular here and they’re really not, it’s really that people are just so dissatisfied and there’s really not another option.”
Democrats’ chances of flipping the House and Senate
Among all voters, Data for Progress found Democrats leading the generic ballot 51 percent to 44 percent.
Quantus reported a narrower 47-42 Democratic advantage, while Scripps News found Democrats ahead 48 percent to 39 percent.
Prediction markets also continue to favor Democrats for the House. Kalshi gave Democrats an 83 percent chance of winning control, while Polymarket placed the odds at 84 percent.
The Senate remains more difficult. Democrats must gain four seats to overcome the GOP’s 53-47 majority. North Carolina and Maine are viewed as their strongest pickup opportunities, while Georgia and Michigan remain key defensive races.
Kalshi gave Democrats a 43 percent chance of winning the Senate, compared with 47 percent on Polymarket.
What happens next
Swing voters and independents are expected to remain decisive through November. The key question for Democrats is whether they can translate their generic-ballot advantage into stronger favorability with persuadable voters.
Upcoming polling will be closely watched for shifts in voter attitudes as economic conditions, the fallout from the Platner campaign and developments involving Iran continue to shape the political landscape.
