Darline Graham has opened a double-digit lead in the Republican race to permanently replace her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, according to a new poll released just days before South Carolina’s August 11 special primary. The results of a new Quantus Insights survey strengthened the President Donald Trump-endorsed senator’s position — placing her ahead of Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry and former Gov. Mark Sanford in a crowded contest — but did not eliminate the possibility of a runoff.
Darline Graham moves ahead in new survey
The Quantus survey, conducted August 5-6, found Darline with 30.4% support among voters on the initial ballot, followed by Norman at 17.5%, Fry at 16.6% and Sanford at 15.4%. Another 11.7% were undecided. After undecided voters who expressed a preference were allocated, Darline’s support increased to 33.1%, compared with 20.4% for Norman, 19.6% for Fry and 17.4% for Sanford.
Donald Trump endorsement boosts Darline Graham’s standing
Darline’s campaign received a major boost when Trump endorsed her and urged her to seek the seat left by her brother. “We have known each other for a long time. She is a spectacular person — and a true American Patriot,” Trump said on Truth Social.
“Lindsey was one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known, and his sister shares his deep love of our Country, and the State of South Carolina,” he continued. “During her visit, I asked Darline, for the Good of our Nation, to run for the U.S. Senate in the Special Republican Primary on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. She accepted, as there is nobody better to honor the legacy of her beloved brother, Lindsey.”
Trump also promised voters that Darline “will never let you down.”
A runoff remains likely
According to reports, the Quantus poll represents Darline’s strongest showing in publicly released surveys so far. Emerson’s July 28-29 poll had Norman leading with 22%, followed by Darline at 19% and Fry at 12%, while a July Resonance Media Services survey put Darline at 20.8% and Norman at 16.9%.
Prediction markets also favor Darline, though they differ on the size of her advantage. Polymarket gives her roughly a 65% chance of finishing first, compared with about 21% for Norman and 9% for Fry, while Kalshi puts her at about 47%, followed by Fry at 27% and Norman at 23%. However, with no candidate near the 50% threshold in the polls, the August 11 primary could produce a runoff between the top two candidates.
Darline Graham’s rapid rise after Lindsey Graham’s death
The special election was triggered by Lindsey’s sudden death at 71 on July 11. The District of Columbia medical examiner’s preliminary finding attributed his death to an aortic dissection associated with arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline to fill the vacancy for the remainder of her brother’s term, and she was sworn in on July 14. She had not held elected office before but had served as commissioner of the South Carolina Commission for the Blind since 2019.