A new Fox News poll has handed Republicans troubling news in North Carolina’s closely watched U.S. Senate race, showing Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper with a commanding lead over Republican Michael Whatley. The survey also suggests increasing enthusiasm among Democratic voters to cast a ballot in the midterm elections, raising fresh concerns for Republicans in a race expected to play a pivotal role in determining control of the Senate.
Fox News poll gives Democrats a clear lead
The Fox News survey shows Cooper leading Whatley, former Republican National Committee Chair, by 9 percentage points, with 53% support compared to Whatley’s 44%. While the overall margin is significant, the poll suggests the Democratic advantage extends beyond simple ballot preference. Voter enthusiasm and motivation, often key indicators of turnout in midterm elections, also favor Cooper and his party.
Democratic voter enthusiasm outpaces Republicans
The Fox News poll found that 51% of Democratic voters describe themselves as “extremely interested” in the election, compared with 42% of Republicans. Democrats also hold an edge in voter motivation, with 58% saying they are extremely motivated to vote versus 50% of Republicans. This enthusiasm appears to translate directly into Cooper’s standing. Among voters who say they are extremely interested in the election, Cooper’s lead widens to 57% against Whatley’s 42%, a 15-point advantage. Among those who describe themselves as extremely motivated to vote, Cooper leads 55% to 42%. Even among voters who say they are “certain” to cast a ballot, Cooper maintains his overall 53% to 44% advantage.
North Carolina, a closely watched Senate race
North Carolina is expected to be one of the decisive races in the battle for control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a 53-45 majority, excluding independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats. The North Carolina seat became open after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis decided not to seek another term. Democrats see the contest as one of their clearest opportunities to gain ground, while Republicans view holding it as critical to preserving their majority.
The Tar Heel State has historically remained elusive to Democrats
Despite Cooper’s lead in the Fox News poll, North Carolina has consistently proved difficult terrain for Democrats. Notably, the party has not won a U.S. Senate or presidential race in the state since 2008. President Donald Trump also carried North Carolina in the 2024 presidential election, defeating then-Vice President Kamala Harris by more than three percentage points.
