The race for the Republican nomination to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina has tightened, according to reports, with a new poll showing Rep. Nancy Mace among several contenders vying for an open Senate seat. While Rep. Ralph Norman currently holds a narrow lead, a new Emerson College survey indicates there is no clear frontrunner, leaving Mace with a fair chance as the special Republican primary begins to take shape.
Ralph Norman leads crowded Republican field, Nancy Mace closely follows
The Emerson College poll, released on Thursday, July 16, found Norman leading the prospective Republican field with 16% support among likely GOP primary voters. Greenville-area businessman Mark Lynch, the only declared candidate so far, followed at 13%. Mace and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette each received 10% support, ahead of Rep. Russell Fry at 9%. Gov. Henry McMaster polled at 8%, while interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone — Lindsey Graham’s sister — received 6%. Former Rep. Mark Sanford stood at 5%, with another 5% backing other candidates.
The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted July 14 and 15 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points. Notably, 18% of respondents remained undecided, leaving the race highly competitive.
Nancy Mace weighs Senate bid as Republican field develops
Although Mace has not formally entered the race, she is widely viewed as a potential contender. She and Norman both lost the Republican gubernatorial primary in June, with Mace, once considered a rising Republican after flipping a Charleston-area congressional district in 2020, finishing fifth.
Political scientist Justin Vaughn of Coastal Carolina University said the strongest candidates are likely to be those who recently competed in high-profile statewide Republican contests. While Norman has publicly acknowledged he is “interested in the job” during an appearance on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria, he has yet to launch a campaign.
Mark Lynch formally enters the race
Lynch confirmed his candidacy shortly after Graham’s death, telling The New York Times he would invest another $5 million to “finish the race we started.” He previously received just under 29% of the vote against Graham’s 57% in this year’s Republican primary. Speaking to Newsweek, Lynch said, “I am proud to continue the fight we started in February of 2025, and I look forward to being President [Donald] Trump’s greatest ally in the United States Senate while I fight for South Carolina.”
According to reports, Trump actively opposed Lynch’s campaign and had thrown all his support behind Graham. In fact, last month, Trump sharply criticized Lynch in a post on Truth Social while praising his preferred candidate, Graham. “Senator Lindsey Graham is doing a fantastic job,” Trump wrote. “He is running against a LUNATIC named Mark Lynch, who supports perhaps the Worst Congressman in the History of our Country, Thomas Massie, of the Great Commonwealth of Kentucky.” The president added, “I don’t have to go into great detail, but needless to say, Mark Lynch would be a DISASTER for the Republican Party.”
South Carolina’s political establishment left ‘stunned’ by Lindsey Graham’s death
Under South Carolina law, in the event a Senate seat is abruptly left vacant, the governor appoints an interim senator until voters choose a permanent replacement in a special election. The South Carolina Election Commission has scheduled the special election for August 11, with early voting running from August 5 to 7 and absentee ballot applications due by July 31.
Vaughn said South Carolina’s political establishment has been left “stunned” by Graham’s death. “Elected officials and other leaders who may have had an eye on that or other statewide positions for the future now suddenly face a scramble, but a highly compressed election will tend to favor those with strong name ID, resources, and — probably more than anything — the support of President Trump,” he said.
Reports say that Graham’s death transformed what had been a routine reelection campaign into one of the state’s most closely watched political contests.
