President Donald Trump suffered a significant political setback after three major national polls released this week recorded the lowest approval ratings of his second term. The surveys from AP-NORC, Quinnipiac University and CNN/SSRS also found growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict and the economy, two issues that have become primary voter concerns ahead of the midterms.
Donald Trump’s triple blow
An AP-NORC poll conducted between July 23 and July 27 found Trump’s approval rating at 33%, down four points from the organization’s previous survey, while 66% disapproved. It marks the lowest approval rating of his second term in AP-NORC polling.
A Quinnipiac University survey taken over the same period painted an even bleaker picture. Just 32% of registered voters approved of Trump’s job performance, compared with 58% who disapproved. Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said the result represented “the lowest approval rating Trump has ever recorded in a Quinnipiac University poll,” across both of his terms.
Meanwhile, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS found Trump’s approval at 34%, matching the career low he reached at the end of his first term following the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. The survey also found a record-low 15% of Americans currently strongly approved of the president, while half strongly disapproved.
Iran conflict weighs heavily on public opinion
According to public opinion, the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire seems to have emerged as one of the Trump administration’s biggest political failures. CNN found that only 28% approve of Trump’s handling of Iran, while just a quarter believe he has a clear strategy for the conflict. Sixty-two percent said he is not an effective world leader, and only 25% believe the war has been worth its cost in American lives and resources.
Quinnipiac reported similarly weak numbers, with 28% approving of Trump’s handling of Iran and 66% disapproving. Just 34% support continued U.S. military action, while 60% oppose it. A majority of respondents, 55%, expect the conflict to last at least a year, a sharp increase from 32% in the poll’s April 15 survey.
The AP-NORC poll also found only 28% approve of Trump’s handling of Iran, while 69% disapprove. One-third of Americans said the war has been worth fighting, while 64% disagree.
Economic concerns remain another major weak point
The economy remains another major weakness for the president across all three surveys. CNN found only 30% approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 70% disapprove. His ratings on gas prices and inflation were even lower, at 21% and 25% respectively. Nearly three-quarters of respondents said rising gasoline prices had caused them financial hardship.
Quinnipiac reported 34% approval and 62% disapproval on the economy. Fifty-nine percent believed economic conditions were worsening, while nearly half said they were financially worse off than a year earlier. “The answer to the time-tested campaign query, ‘Are you better off today than you were a year ago?’ comes back… no,” Malloy said.
The AP-NORC survey found just 30% approve of Trump’s economic performance, with 69% disapproving. Furthermore, 40% identified gas prices as a major source of personal stress, up from 27% in February.
Republicans likely heading into difficult midterms, based on Donald Trump’s approval ratings
Presidents with approval ratings below 40% have historically faced difficult midterms. At the equivalent point in his first presidency, Gallup measured Trump’s approval at 40% before Republicans lost 41 House seats in the 2018 elections.
Quinnipiac also found Democrats holding an early enthusiasm advantage, as 48% of voters said they wanted Democrats to control the House, compared with 41% favoring Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of Democrats reported being more motivated to vote than in previous midterms, versus 39% of Republicans. “A warning sign is blinking red for the GOP,” Malloy said. “With turnout so crucial in midterm elections that many voters tend to ignore, the Democrats seem more motivated to show up than Republicans.”
Political strategist Mike Madrid told Newsweek the results reflect growing frustration with Republicans rather than renewed support for Democrats. “This is 100% about the Republicans,” Madrid said. “This is all anger and upset with the Republicans. Not that the Democrats are doing anything right. It’s that the Republicans are doing everything wrong.”
