A new national survey from I&I/TIPP — a pollster that correctly projected the winner of the past six U.S. presidential elections — found President Donald Trump‘s standing improved modestly in early July, driven by gains among Republicans and Independents even as Democratic views worsened.
Terry Jones, editor of Issues & Insights, wrote that Trump “may be turning a corner in public opinion.” The shift is notable because Independents are widely viewed as the decisive voting bloc ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Responding to the poll, White House spokesman Davis Ingle told Newsweek that no previous president has done more for Americans than Trump, crediting him with boosting job growth, easing inflation, improving housing affordability and building momentum at home and abroad.
What the poll found
The I&I/TIPP survey conducted among 1,473 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Trump’s favorability rating rose to 40 percent in July from 37 percent in June, while his unfavorable rating dipped to 52 percent from 53 percent. His net favorability improved from negative 16 points to negative 12.
The gains came almost entirely from Republicans and Independents.
Among Republicans, Trump’s favorability climbed to 76 percent from 72 percent, while unfavorable views fell to 17 percent. Among Independents, favorability increased to 29 percent from 25 percent, a smaller shift but one closely watched because the group often decides close elections.
Democrats moved in the opposite direction. Just 12 percent viewed Trump favorably, down from 13 percent in June, while 83 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Trump’s job approval changed little. Thirty-eight percent approved of his performance and 54 percent disapproved, virtually unchanged from June.
Republican approval rose to 75 percent from 71 percent, while Independent approval edged up to 27 percent from 24 percent. Democratic disapproval increased to 86 percent.
On leadership, 37 percent described Trump as “strong” or “very strong,” while 46 percent called him “weak” or “very weak.”
Overall policy grades also improved slightly. Thirty-five percent gave Trump an A or B, up from 34 percent. Immigration and border security received his highest marks, with 45 percent awarding top grades, while inflation and the cost of living remained his weakest issue at 26 percent.
The context driving the numbers
According to I&I/TIPP, the modest rebound coincided with lower energy prices and optimism surrounding a possible resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict.
That narrative shifted the same day the poll analysis was published.
Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Trump said the U.S.-Iran ceasefire was “over” after Iranian forces attacked three commercial vessels and the U.S. launched retaliatory strikes.
Brent crude prices jumped about 6 percent following the escalation. Trump said talks with Tehran would continue despite the collapse of the ceasefire, highlighting how the same conflict that may have helped improve his standing could also reverse those gains.
Where the numbers sit in the broader polling landscape
The I&I/TIPP findings broadly align with other polling, though they paint a somewhat more favorable picture for Trump.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin estimated Trump’s net approval at roughly negative 17.8 points in early July, improving from about negative 18.9 a week earlier. Silver noted, however, that Trump’s rating remained worse than President Joe Biden’s at the same stage of his presidency and below Trump’s first-term standing.
A CNN poll-of-polls showed Trump at 37 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval, while The New York Times polling average placed him at roughly 39 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval. The differences underscore how methodology and question wording can influence survey results.
On the 2026 midterms, RealClearPolitics‘ generic congressional ballot average showed Democrats leading Republicans by roughly five to six points. While significant, the margin remains well below the double-digit advantages Democrats held before the 2006 and 2018 wave elections.
Other polling averages point to a similar environment. Morning Consult showed Democrats ahead 46 percent to 42 percent, while FiftyPlusOne‘s average put the Democratic advantage at six points.
