A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll suggests the Republican race for the 2028 presidential nomination is becoming more competitive, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio making significant gains while Vice President J.D. Vance’s lead narrows sharply. Although Vance remains the frontrunner among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, Rubio has erased much of what was once a commanding double-digit advantage.
Marco Rubio makes gains in New Hampshire
The latest survey puts Vance at 36% support among prospective Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, while Rubio has climbed to 26%. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each received 8%, followed by Florida Gove. Ron DeSantis at 6%, former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4% and Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy at 2%. All other potential candidates received less than 2% support.
The shift is notable compared with previous University of New Hampshire Survey Center polls. In February, Vance led Rubio 53% to 7%, while an October 2025 survey found Vance ahead 51% to 5%. The latest results therefore represent a dramatic tightening of the contest, with Rubio gaining nearly 20 percentage points as Vance’s support fell by 17 points.
Marco Rubio’s improved standing reflects his growing visibility
Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said Rubio’s improved standing reflects his growing visibility in the Trump administration. “Rubio’s surge doesn’t surprise me. He has been more in the news lately, given the U.S. international posture, and he has managed to sound reasonable and grounded, in contrast to the defense secretary, for instance,” Reeher told Newsweek, referencing Pete Hegseth. He also argued that Rubio could ultimately emerge as the stronger general election candidate if the nomination contest remains open. “Vance will be perceived as the more Trump-like candidate, given his proximity to Trump, and some of his rhetoric. If they run a full primary, and Trump doesn’t put his thumb — or fist, rather — on the scale, I would expect Rubio to prevail,” he said.
National polls still favor J.D. Vance
Despite Rubio gaining momentum in New Hampshire, broader polling continues to show Vance leading the prospective Republican field. A Big Data Poll conducted last month found Vance with 35.4% support, more than double Rubio’s 16.5%. Meanwhile, a Zogby Analytics poll released this month showed Vance leading both Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Gov. Gavin Newsom in hypothetical 2028 general election matchups, scoring 45% against Ocasio-Cortez’s 37.6% and 45.1% against Newsom’s 38.1%.
J.D. Vance remains focused on the vice presidency for the moment
Despite what polls show, Vance has repeatedly avoided committing to a 2028 presidential campaign, insisting that his attention currently remains on his responsibilities as vice president. He previously said that he will make a decision regarding a potential White House run after the midterms. “After the midterms, I will eventually have to make that decision,” he told Megyn Kelly last month.
Speaking alongside second lady Usha Vance on CBS Sunday Morning last month, he added, “I have no doubt that the president of the United States is going to be very supportive of anything that I ultimately decide to do. … But we really just haven’t talked about what that thing will be.”
The VP also dismissed questions about a potential presidential campaign earlier this year, telling Newsweek that Americans would likely view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road” unfavorably.
