Vice President J.D. Vance has been seen holding early leads over California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups, according to a new Zogby Analytics poll.
The poll suggests Republicans currently have an advantage in head-to-head contests, although no major candidate has formally entered the race. The results of the Zogby survey contrast with other recent polls that have shown Democrats leading similar matchups.
J.D. Vance leads in hypothetical 2028 presidential matchups
The Zogby Analytics online survey of 1,003 likely U.S. voters was conducted between July 1 and July 4 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. In the poll’s main matchups, Vance received 45% support against Ocasio-Cortez’s 37.6%, giving him a 7.4-point advantage. Against Newsom, Vance led 45.1% to 38.1%, resulting in a 7-point edge. However, given the poll’s margin of error, the actual gap between the candidates could be smaller, making the race rather competitive.
Marco Rubio trails J.D. Vance’s performance
The same survey also tested Secretary of State Marco Rubio in hypothetical general election matchups. Rubio led Newsom 40.3% to 36.2% and held a much narrower advantage over Ocasio-Cortez, 39.2% to 38.3%. Compared with Rubio’s results, Vance performed notably better against both Democratic contenders. The findings suggest Vance may be consolidating Republican voters more effectively in this sample, while Democratic support appears more divided or undecided.
Zogby poll differs from earlier surveys
The Zogby results break from several earlier polls that painted a different picture of the 2028 race. A June survey by the Public Sentiment Institute found Ocasio-Cortez leading Vance by nearly nine points, while Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris also held advantages in similar matchups. Broader polling averages have likewise fluctuated, with some surveys favoring Democratic candidates and others giving Vance a slight lead. Because no candidate has officially announced a presidential campaign, analysts generally view early polling as a reflection of current political attitudes and name recognition rather than settled voter preferences.
Other surveys point to Kamala Harris
It’s unclear whether Ocasio-Cortez or Newsom would ultimately turn up as the leading choice for Democrats, as the Democratic presidential ballot seems to favor Harris instead. A Quantus Insights survey of 1,140 respondents, conducted on July 3, 6 and 7 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, found Harris leading the Democratic field with 35.3% support, reinforcing a trend seen across multiple polls conducted this year. Newsom placed second at 17.7%, 17.6 points behind Harris, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received 12.9%. Ocasio-Cortez followed with 11.1%, and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro garnered 7.1%. The results suggest Harris remains the early Democratic frontrunner, even as polls continue to test hypothetical general election matchups involving Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez.