Incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s bid for a fourth term has become more competitive after a new poll showed Democrat Gina Hinojosa narrowing the gap in the Texas gubernatorial race. Although Abbott remains the favorite in prediction markets and among election forecasters, the latest survey suggests his lead has narrowed to within the margin of error. The findings came as Democrats seek to capitalize on President Donald Trump’s declining national approval ratings in hopes of making gains in traditionally Republican states.
New poll shows a tight gubernatorial race in Texas
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,048 likely voters found Abbott leading Hinojosa 45% to 42%, with roughly 10% of respondents still undecided. The poll also highlighted demographic divides shaping the contest, as Hinojosa led Abbott among independents by 5 percentage points and among moderates by 18 points. She also held commanding leads among Black and Latino voters, ahead by 49 points and 38 points, respectively. The survey suggests Hinojosa has built a notable voter base despite entering the race with significantly lower statewide name recognition than the incumbent governor. Abbott, meanwhile, maintained a 29-point advantage among white voters and a 9-point advantage among college-educated voters.
Gina Hinojosa leads Greg Abbott in terms of favorability ratings
While Abbott remains better known to voters, his personal ratings have become increasingly polarized. According to the new poll, Abbott’s net favorability stood at just 1 point, as 48% viewed him favorably while 47% held an unfavorable opinion. The same poll gave Hinojosa a net favorability rating of 7 points, with 31% viewing her favorably and 24% unfavorably. However, 45% of respondents said they were unfamiliar with her or lacked enough information to form an opinion.
Earlier polling painted a somewhat stronger picture for Abbott. A The New York Times/Siena College survey conducted from June 19 to June 27 showed him leading 51% to 44%. Other May and June polls consistently placed Abbott ahead by four to seven points.
Prediction markets still heavily favor Greg Abbott
Despite polls pointing to a competitive race, betting markets continue to view Abbott as the overwhelming favorite. As of Tuesday, July 28, Polymarket gave the governor a 94% chance of winning reelection, while Kalshi estimated his chances at roughly 91%. Hinojosa’s odds stood at 6% on Polymarket and about 11% on Kalshi. The Cook Political Report also continues to rate the race as “solid” Republican, reflecting the GOP’s longstanding dominance in statewide Texas elections.
Analysts differ on Democratic chances in Texas
Alex Patton, principal of Ozean Media, told Newsweek that “although demographic and political changes continue to reshape the state, Abbott retains significant advantages in fundraising, name recognition and partisan advantage.” He added that a Democratic victory in the Texas gubernatorial race is “not completely out of the question, but remains unlikely.” Notably, Democrats have not won a Texas gubernatorial election since Ann Richards’ victory in 1990, and Republicans argue the state remains firmly conservative despite recent signs of a more competitive political landscape.
Democratic strategist Doug Gordon, meanwhile, offered a more optimistic assessment, arguing, “It is clear Hinojosa has the momentum. This race has gone from a 10-point race to a 7-point race to a 5-point race to a 3-point race.” Gordon also noted that Abbott polling below 50% could create an opening if Hinojosa continues to win over independents and boosts Latino turnout. Patton, however, maintained that the Democrat still faces “an uphill battle,” saying she would need to win a substantial share of undecided voters, improve among independents and moderate Republicans and generate unusually strong Democratic turnout to overcome Abbott’s advantages.