Dems get good news in Texas as Rep. James Talarico holds narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in closely watched Senate race pollTexas Democrats received a boost after a new Fox News poll released on Thursday, July 30, showed Democratic Rep. James Talarico narrowly leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races. The poll shows a strong performance by a Democratic candidate in a state that has long favored Republicans in federal elections.
Fox News poll shows James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton
The Fox News survey found Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48%, which falls within the poll’s margin of error. However, the gap widens among the state’s most engaged voters, with Talarico leading 53% to 47% among both those who are “extremely motivated” and those “extremely interested” in voting. The poll also highlighted demographic strengths for the Democrat. Talarico won 68% support among independents and 98% among Democrats, while attracting 24% of non-MAGA Republicans. Hispanic voters backed him 59% to 41% over Paxton.
The poll further found that “more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).”
Enthusiasm gap cause for concern for Republicans in a nationally significant race
The Fox survey reinforced recent polls that suggest Democrats currently hold an enthusiasm advantage in Texas. Higher levels of motivation among Democratic voters could prove significant because highly engaged voters are generally more likely to turn out on Election Day.
The Texas Senate race carries national implications. Republicans currently hold a 53-45 Senate majority, excluding independents Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats. A Democratic pickup in Texas would dramatically improve the party’s chances of reclaiming control of the chamber.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News surveys alongside Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, said Paxton still faces political challenges after defeating Sen. John Cornyn in a contentious Republican primary. “Although Paxton dominated Cornyn in the GOP primary, that bruising contest left scars,” Shaw said. “He has considerable work to do with non-MAGA Republicans and independents, and that undoubtedly requires aggressively tying Talarico to the Democratic Party’s far left.”
Both campaigns respond to the poll
Paxton campaign spokesperson Nick Maddux downplayed the poll’s results, saying in a statement to Newsweek, “The only poll that matters is November 3, when Texans get a look at James Talarico’s actual record including endorsing reparations, voting against protecting kids from irreversible transition procedures, attacking oil and gas jobs and backing the largest tax increase in Texas history. There is no amount of panicked flip-flopping that is going to save him. Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream.”
J.T. Ennis, a spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign, offered a contrasting message, saying, “Texans are tired of this broken, corrupt political system and are ready to elect a leader who will fight for working people – not billionaire mega donors. This November, Texans will choose the preacher over the p******** protector.”
James Talarico keeps the spotlight on the Adam Hoffman controversy
Talarico has also sought to keep attention on Paxton’s office over its handling of a plea agreement involving attorney Adam Hoffman. The Democrat criticized what he called an “Epstein-style sweetheart deal” after Hoffman pleaded guilty to reduced charges of display of harmful material to a minor and indecent assault, received a 60-day jail sentence, lost his law license and avoided registering as a sex offender.
However, Paxton’s campaign has rejected those attacks, with a campaign spokesperson previously accusing Talarico of “intentionally re-traumatizing the child victim for personal gain,” according to The Texas Tribune.
