Alaska’s long-standing Republican dominance is facing an unexpected test as Democrats eye opportunities in two major statewide races amid slipping support for President Donald Trump and growing voter frustration.
Alaska becomes competitive
Trump carried Alaska by double digits in 2016, 2020 and 2024, while Republicans have controlled both U.S. Senate seats and the governor’s office for much of the past two decades. But the state now faces a competitive Senate contest, a crowded 17-candidate governor’s race and shifting political attitudes.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, first elected in 2014, is battling former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who is seeking to become Alaska’s first Democratic senator since Mark Begich lost to Sullivan 12 years ago.
Peltola is also the only Democrat to win statewide in Alaska since Begich’s 2008 victory. Her campaign argues that history proves she can overcome Alaska’s Republican lean, while Sullivan’s campaign maintains her previous success was an exception.
Brandon Boylan, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said the race is genuinely competitive.
“Party affiliation isn’t everything [in Alaska],” Boylan told Newsweek.
Polling from Alaska Survey Research
Alaska has reliably supported Republican presidential candidates but has occasionally elected Democrats and independents to statewide office, including Begich and former independent Gov. Bill Walker.
Polling has given Peltola reasons to be optimistic. Alaska Survey Research has tracked the contest monthly since January, with Peltola leading Sullivan by between 2 and 7 points in every survey. Its August 2-5 poll of 1,371 likely voters showed Peltola ahead 51 percent to 49 percent.
A The New York Times/Siena University poll conducted June 15-29 was the lone survey showing Sullivan ahead, 47 percent to 45 percent. Boylan noted Peltola’s advantage has narrowed in recent months.
Prediction markets have also portrayed the contest as a toss-up. Polymarket recently placed Peltola’s chances of winning at 52 percent, while Kalshi contracts updated August 13 put her at 55 percent.
$2 million investment from the GOP
Republicans are responding with significant spending. The Senate Leadership Fund, a GOP-aligned super PAC, announced another $2 million investment in Alaska, bringing its total spending against Peltola to $17 million.
Peltola’s campaign says enthusiasm remains on its side.
“Alaskans know that Mary will stand up to anyone to fix the rigged system in Washington, lower costs and put Alaska first,” a spokesperson for her campaign told Newsweek. “With more than 10,000 Alaskans signed up to help Mary’s campaign from every corner of the state, and Dan Sullivan’s approval rating plummeting after he helped drive up the cost of gas, groceries and health care, Mary is in a strong position to retire self-serving Dan Sullivan this November.”
Peltola won Alaska’s 2022 special House election and the regular election that November before losing to Republican Nick Begich in 2024.
Boylan said some voters are increasingly frustrated with Trump over rising living costs tied partly to the war with Iran, while Sullivan has remained closely aligned with the president.