Former Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the early frontrunner among Michigan Democrats for the party’s 2028 presidential nomination, according to a new poll conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
The survey found Harris with 25 percent support among 500 likely Democratic primary voters, ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 19.4 percent.
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez placed third with 11.5 percent, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 10.1 percent. Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey and Mark Kelly of Arizona each received 8.3 percent. Governors Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and JB Pritzker of Illinois each finished below 5 percent.
About 1.6 percent of respondents backed another candidate, while 7.5 percent said they were undecided, their choice depended on circumstances, or declined to answer.
Pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Glengariff Group, said the survey is “starting to see some formations of fault lines in this race with Black voters, college-educated voters and far-left voters.”
Context behind the poll
The survey comes less than two years before Michigan Democrats choose their 2028 nominee and reflects a party still rebuilding after Harris’ loss to President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
Czuba said Harris performed strongest among Black voters and in Metro Detroit, while Buttigieg led among college-educated voters. Ocasio-Cortez drew the most support from Democratic Socialists, a faction that has become increasingly influential in recent primaries.
He cautioned that the results largely reflect name recognition at this stage because more candidates are expected to enter the race. Still, he said the poll suggests Harris has a strong opportunity in one of the first nominating states.
Several potential candidates have also increased their presence in Michigan this year. Harris appeared in Detroit in April alongside Booker at the Michigan Democratic Party women’s luncheon before the state convention and returned in February as part of her book tour.
Buttigieg, who declined to run for governor or the U.S. Senate, spoke at the Mackinac Policy Conference and campaigned for Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson in Traverse City. Moore also campaigned for Benson in Detroit while declining to discuss his own presidential ambitions. Yahoo previously reported on those visits.
Craig Agranoff, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek via text that the results are “not entirely surprising, but it does tell us something interesting about where Michigan Democrats are at this early stage.”
He said Harris “still carries the name recognition and institutional support from her time as vice president and the 2024 nominee, so leading the field at around 25% makes sense, especially with her strength among key parts of the base.”
Agranoff also highlighted Buttigieg’s performance because of his “Midwestern connection now living in Traverse City,” describing him as “articulate” and attractive to voters seeking “someone younger and more forward-looking without going too far left.”
He cautioned that “this is all very preliminary of course,” adding that “a lot can change between now and 2028.”
How Michigan compares with national polls
Michigan’s status as a key battleground gives the survey added significance after Trump carried the state by 1.4 percentage points in 2024.
National polling shows a similar picture.
An Echelon Insights survey of 1,004 likely voters conducted July 9–13 found Harris leading with 21 percent, followed by Newsom at 14 percent, Buttigieg at 13 percent, Ocasio-Cortez at 9 percent, Shapiro at 7 percent and Kelly at 4 percent. Fourteen percent were undecided.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll conducted among 1,776 registered voters found Harris with a larger lead at 37 percent, ahead of Newsom at 24 percent, Buttigieg at 10 percent and Shapiro and Ocasio-Cortez at 9 percent each.
What the candidates have said
None of the leading contenders has formally entered the race.
Harris told Rev. Al Sharpton earlier this year that she is “thinking about it” when asked whether she would seek the presidency again.
Asked by David Axelrod about her own ambitions, Ocasio-Cortez said she avoids making decisions based on higher office.
“My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate, House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer healthcare is forever,” she said.
She added that “a living wage is forever, workers’ rights are forever, women’s rights, all of that.”
Ocasio-Cortez also said not having “been like fantasizing about being this or that since the time you were 7 years old” is “tremendously liberating,” adding that she wants to make decisions “from a place of how are we going to change the country.”
