Democrats have opened sizable leads over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in two new polls, delivering another setback for the GOP as the 2026 midterm elections approach. New Emerson College and Fox News polls show Democrats expanding their advantage even as Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate, suggesting voter concerns over the economy and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings are shaping the midterm elections.
Democrats widen advantage in new polls
The Emerson College poll, released Thursday, July 23, found Democrats leading Republicans 53% to 42% on the generic ballot, an 11-point lead that has steadily grown from 9 points in May and 10 points in June after standing at just 2 points in December 2025 and 6 points in January. The latest Fox News poll also found Democrats ahead 53% to 46%, an 8-point lead that improved from 5 points in April and 6 points in January. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics polling average on Thursday showed Democrats leading by 5.2 points — up from 4.7 points earlier in the week.
Democratic strategist Emily Suttle-Braun attributed the polling results to economic frustrations. “Voters are living through Republican control of the White House, House and Senate and they are miserable about their bank accounts,” she said.
Experts point to Donald Trump and the economy as fuel for the Democratic advantage
Raymond La Raja, professor of political science and co-director of the University of Massachusetts Amherst’s polling program, said Trump’s economic record is driving the shift. “Voters think he broke a promise about keeping down the cost of living. In fact, he made it worse with tariffs and the Iran war,” he told Newsweek. “So it’s not really about what the Democrats have done to get the lead, but what the Republicans haven’t done.”
La Raja added that voter turnout during the actual midterms could be decisive, while noting that fewer competitive districts and Republican-backed gerrymandering could limit the size of any Democratic wave. However, “a big wave could topple even those gerrymandered seats if they didn’t put enough Republican voters into them,” he said.
Donald Trump’s unpopularity and high prices creating ‘colossal problems’ for Republicans
Stephen Farnsworth, professor emeritus at the University of Mary Washington, said Trump’s unpopularity and high prices are creating “colossal problems” for Republicans, adding that many voters see him as “increasingly out of touch with their daily concerns” because of his focus on immigration and the Iran war.
Republican strategist Jeff Burton, on the other hand, argued that the numbers could change. “The polls fluctuate this time of year. When the campaigning really begins, Republicans will be able to tout their accomplishments and show the disarray in the Democratic Party with the democratic socialist takeover of their party,” he said.
Both parties insist they have a winning message
Midterm elections have historically been difficult for the president’s party. Democrats gained 47 House seats during Trump’s first midterm in 2018, and recent polling shows his approval rating remains under pressure. In the Emerson survey, 39% approved of Trump’s job performance, while 57% disapproved.
Both parties insist they have a winning message. Republican National Committee spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre described the election as a “clear choice between common sense versus communism,” while Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Viet Shelton said voters are “angry, eager for change and ready to power House Democrats to the majority.” Democratic National Committee spokesperson Kendall Witmer added that Democrats are focused on lowering costs and argued, “While Donald Trump and Republicans hand out tax breaks to the rich and wage their deadly and costly war with Iran… Democrats are standing up for everyday Americans to make life more affordable.”
