A new national poll of potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates found former Vice President Kamala Harris commanding a double-digit lead over California Gov. Gavin Newsom. The latest Quantus Insights survey found Harris ahead by 17.6 percentage points among likely voters, reinforcing a trend seen across multiple polls conducted this year. While no Democrat has formally announced a presidential run, the results suggest Harris remains the early favorite as speculation over the party’s presidential ticket intensifies.
Kamala Harris establishes early advantage in new poll
The Quantus Insights poll, conducted among 1,140 respondents on July 3, 6 and 7 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, placed Harris at 35.3% support. Newsom finished a distant second at 17.7%, leaving Harris as a frontrunner with a 17.6-point advantage in the multi-candidate field. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg followed with 12.9%, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez received 11.1% support. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was considered as Harris’ running mate during the 2024 election cycle, trailed with 7.1%.
Solidified support for Kamala Harris despite crowded Democratic field
Beyond Harris, support is divided among several prospective contenders. Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez together account for roughly one-quarter of the vote, while the remaining potential candidates remain in single digits. The poll also highlights how more than one-third of respondents backed a single candidate, Harris, despite the crowded Democratic field. Such consolidation can provide an early advantage in presidential primaries, where momentum, fundraising and proportional allocation often reward candidates who establish a durable base even before campaigns officially begin.
Results mirror earlier 2026 polling
The Quantus poll’s findings align with other surveys released this year that showed Harris in the lead, with a significant gap between her and Newsom. A Center Square Voters’ Voice poll conducted June 1 to June 4 among 1,013 Democrats found Harris leading 27% to Newsom’s 14%, with a margin of error of 1.93 percentage points. Earlier, a Lake Research Partners survey conducted May 6 to May 11 among 800 Democratic primary voters placed Harris first at 26%, ahead of Newsom’s 17%. Harris later prevailed in the poll’s ranked-choice simulation by 52% to 48%, within a 3.5-point margin of error.
Although early presidential polling often reflects name recognition and existing political stature rather than firm electoral choices, reports have mentioned that repeated leads can influence donor confidence, media attention and perceptions of candidate viability.
Poll identifies GOP frontrunner
The same Quantus Insights poll also measured early Republican preferences for the 2028 presidential ticket. Vice President J.D. Vance led the field with 42.2% support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 25.9% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 8.7%, with other potential contenders registering single-digit support.
Commented Newsweek, “That contrast is striking: While Democrats show a dominant but less consolidated leader, Republicans appear more unified around a single figure, at least at this early stage.”
